TradeWell Research · October 15, 2026
AAOI technical analysis: where Applied Optoelectronics stands after the Oct 14 selloff
technical-analysisaioptical
Quick answer
Trend, moving averages, RSI, MACD, volume and the support and resistance levels that matter for AAOI, computed from daily price data as of the 2026-10-14 close.
Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI) was one of the hardest-hit AI optical names in the 2026-10-14 selloff. Every figure below is computed from Yahoo Finance daily OHLCV data as of the 2026-10-14 close. Moving averages are simple averages of closes, RSI uses Wilder's 14-day smoothing, and MACD is the standard 12/26/9 on closes.
The 2026-10-14 session
- Close: 86.22, down 11.8% on the day (source: Yahoo Finance, as of 2026-10-14).
- Range: 85.75 to 96.14. The stock closed within half a dollar of its low, so there was no intraday reversal.
- Volume: 14.7 million shares, about 1.5 times its 50-day average of 10.0 million. Heavy volume on a down day means real distribution, not a quiet drift.
- Five sessions: down 29.6% from the 2026-10-07 close of 122.54, and down about 34% from the 2026-10-06 close of 130.16 (as of 2026-10-14).
Trend and moving averages
| Measure | Level (as of 2026-10-14) | Price vs level |
|---|
| 20-day MA | 105.83 | 18.5% below |
| 50-day MA | 112.86 | 23.6% below |
| 200-day MA | 111.79 | 22.9% below |
AAOI now trades below all three averages, and the 50-day sits only slightly above the 200-day, so the longer-term trend has flattened. The early-October run from about 99 to 130 (2026-09-30 to 2026-10-06) has been fully retraced. The bigger picture is a stock still far below its 52-week high: the intraday peak was 233.67 on 2026-05-13.
Momentum
- RSI(14): 37.4. Weak, but not yet oversold (below 30). Sellers have room to push before the stock looks stretched on this measure.
- MACD: -2.20 vs signal -0.57, histogram -1.63 and widening from -0.35 the session before. Momentum is still accelerating to the downside; a turn would first show up as the histogram shrinking.
Support and resistance
Support 1. 85.75 — the 2026-10-14 intraday low, the first line. 2. ~76.01 — the 2026-07-29 low, the lowest print of the past three months and the major support below.
Resistance 1. 93.6–95.1 — the 2026-09-28 low (93.62) and the 2026-10-13 low (95.08). Former support that broke on 2026-10-14 tends to act as resistance on the way back. 2. ~105.8 — the 20-day MA. 3. ~112–113 — the 50-day and 200-day MAs, clustered together. Reclaiming this zone would repair the trend.
Levels to watch
- Bullish reclaim: a close back above about 95, ideally on lighter selling volume and with the MACD histogram shrinking, would say the 2026-10-14 break was a flush rather than a new leg down. A move through the 105.8 20-day MA would confirm it.
- Bearish break: a close below 85.75 opens the way toward the mid-70s (the 2026-07-29 low near 76). An RSI drop under 30 there would be the first sign of capitulation.
Fundamental context
The business story did not change on 2026-10-14. AOI makes optical transceivers for AI data centers alongside its CATV broadband products. In its second-quarter 2026 results, the company reported revenue of $191.9 million versus $103.0 million a year earlier, with data-center revenue of $107.7 million, and said it expects demand to outpace production capacity through mid-2027. Management said it is targeting roughly 650,000 units per month of 800G and 1.6T capacity by the end of 2026, per the same release. Earlier in the year it announced a first volume 1.6T order of more than $200 million and $124 million of 800G orders from hyperscale customers.
The risk is execution: a company ramping capacity this fast carries heavy inventory and capital needs, and a stock that has already traded from 233 to 86 shows how violently sentiment can swing. For context on the broader move, see after the Oct 14 AI selloff: who's best positioned to rebound.
Educational, not personalized investment advice. Technical levels describe past price behavior and do not predict future prices.
Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. TradeWell Research LLC publishes research software and notes for informational purposes only. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
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